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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd